Poland defends against Ukrainian migrants

The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Poland canceled document, set the framework of the migration policy of the country. Motivation – the migration crisis that Europe is facing, and economic migration from Ukraine. According to Warsaw, the old document did not create the necessary and sufficient conditions to counter these two challenges. Now it decided to create a new one.

Protect western borders simply

With regard to European immigration crisis, it is obvious that at this stage in #Poland should not have major problems with the protection of its western borders from the influx of migrants.

Asian and African refugees and so are not particularly eager to poor Eastern European countries. They are trying to get to Germany, Scandinavia, at worst – to France. And gain a foothold there.

Indicative of the situation with the Baltic states. Arriving to the EU quotas Asian and African #migrants – with the tacit support of the authorities of these countries – most of them almost immediately sent to more attractive for their country.

The rejection of the #EU migration policy is typical not only for Poland, but also in Eastern Europe as a whole. Therefore, Warsaw is not alone in its attempts to protect against the European migration policy, which is rightly credited with the authorship of Merkel and European bureaucracy in Brussels.

The European Union is going to stop the multi-billion dollar annual funding for Eastern Europe in general and Poland in particular (held for the purpose of “potential equalization”). Thus, Europe loses a significant lever of influence on the policies of these countries. Why listen to the recommendations of Brussels, if he can not be punished financially? At the same time, #Germany is interested in maintaining the bulge at the seams of the European Union and can not afford too much pressure on the dissident Eastern Europeans politically.

Finally, in the west of Poland is adjacent to the sustainability of public systems capable of supporting in its territory in order. Therefore, the assault of the Polish-German border, a crowd of thousands of refugees in the near future is not expected.

Thus, the Warsaw taken administrative measures should be effective enough in relation to the western border. Of course, these measures undermine the thesis of the common foreign and migration policy of the EU, but in recent years, and so he does not correspond to reality.

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The influx of migrants from Ukraine

Quite a different situation on the eastern border. According to the official Polish data, the number of economic migrants from #Ukraine has more than half a million people.

Informal assessment, taking into account the illegal immigrants, as well as working “in shifts”, giving half to two million. For the 38 millionth Poland a lot. Moreover, hundreds of thousands of “Polish plumbers” themselves looking for work in the more prosperous and wealthy countries of Western Europe, where they are now being squeezed home the very Asian and African migrants.

It turns out that the Ukrainians held jobs are popular among Polish citizens who lost their jobs in the West.

It should be borne in mind that Ukrainian migration to Poland has just economic in nature. For 2016 only thirty-two citizens of Ukraine received additional protection in Poland were guaranteed refugee status and sixty-four. Thus, among the one and a half to two million Ukrainian migrants in Poland policy (which can not be send) for the year it had accumulated less than a hundred. Vanishingly small value, indicating that Poland aims to keep the possibility of an administrative regulation of the number of Ukrainian migrants.

Last year, steps were also taken to make it economically unprofitable for migrants to work. Warsaw ordered to pay them the same salary as the citizens of Poland. The employer can now save only illegals, illegal and you can always send.

“Card of the Pole” played against Poland

However, all these measures can not guarantee Poland a reliable barrier against migration from Ukraine.

Poles almost two decades themselves distributed in the western regions of Ukraine the so-called Pole’s Card, giving, among other things, the ability to legally stay in Poland and even qualify for Polish citizenship. During this time the Pole map received millions of Ukrainian citizens. Some border regions of Western Ukraine provided by them is almost 100%.

You can, of course, cancel the card associated with the Pole benefits and generally disavow it as a document. But you can not change the economic priorities and economic ties of millions of people who are accustomed to make a living in Poland. Especially since the economic collapse in Ukraine, has a permanent character, and not only improve, but even just stabilize in the near future is not expected.

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That is squeezed out of the Polish labor market Ukrainian citizens can not find a job in the Ukraine. can not find it in other countries of Western Europe. There’s even a “Polish plumber” has already supplanted the Asian-African refugees. And the local population, as a result of the crisis, increasingly agrees to any work.

But apart from an economic catastrophe, the Ukrainian state is also in a state of political catastrophe, having confidently passed over the past three years to the status of a failed state.

And Ukraine simply can not provide reliable control over the migration of its citizens to Poland. The repetition on the Polish-Ukrainian border of last year’s situation with crowds of migrants who stormed the southern borders of Greece, Hungary, Serbia, Austria is not just probable, but inevitable. The only difference is that crowds of Asian-African migrants were controlled by Turkey. It was worth the European Union to agree with Ankara – and the rapid flow dried up. Ukrainian migrants will not be monitored. In addition, with high probability, many of them can be armed.

In such a situation, administrative and police measures to regulate migration and protect the border will not do. But the European rules do not allow the use of the army to protect the border from refugees fleeing from a humanitarian catastrophe.

Warsaw is likely to find itself in a situation when the police forces are physically unable to keep crowds of migrants going to the breakthrough of the border, and shooting at them can not be opened.

Applicants for the buffer zone

Rescue for Poland would be the stabilization of the situation in Kiev. It is no coincidence that American and European politicians have been actively consulting the last two months with Yulia Tymoshenko, who does not hide her presidential ambitions. Tymoshenko, in order to achieve her goal, is ready to promise everyone and everything at once. The population – a visa-free regime, pacifists – the world, militarists – victory in the war, Bandera – the glorification of Bandera, the Poles – the elimination of Bandera and so on.

Perhaps, she will even be able to seize the presidential post in Ukraine for some time. But will she become a strong president? No, it will not. Her own power capabilities are even more modest than Poroshenko’s. Based on private armies (partially legalized in the form of official power structures), politicians and oligarchs are not inclined to share real power with it. The financial and economic opportunities of Kiev are tending to zero, which will only strengthen regional separatism. Ukraine after Poroshenko will be even less like a regular state than Ukraine Poroshenko.

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The only way to more or less reliably protect its border from the crowds of Ukrainian refugees for Warsaw remains the creation of a buffer zone on its border.

For example, the Russian border is covered by the people’s republics of Donbass. In the process of continuation of the disintegration of Ukraine, it is possible to create other similar entities. For Poland, it would be natural to cover the border with similar Western Ukrainian republics.

Of course, their population is not so friendly towards Poland as the Donbas is towards Russia. Undoubtedly, the creation of such a protectorate will require substantial material investments from Warsaw to ensure the stability of local regimes.

But part of the funds can be obtained from the EU budget – it’s not just the Polish border. And there is no alternative. Preservation of the current regime of the state border with Ukraine in the near future can raise the issue of the survival of Poland itself.

In : Economy

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