Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is travelling to ny City, knowing he has been dealt a promising hand for improving ties with the US because of developments in Afghanistan.
At the beginning of the year, then prospective US Secretary of State Antony Blinken derided Ankara as a “so-called” partner to the us over
Fast-forward to last month – after the Taliban took the Afghan capital before the US withdrawal – and Blinken tweeted that Turkey was “an important NATO ally and a useful partner within the region”.
The drastic change in tone offers Erdogan quite a glimmer of hope that relations with Washington – for several years blighted by a seemingly inexhaustible litany of disputes – might be salvageable as he travels on Sunday to attend the
The only difference in Erdogan’s policy goes back to a gathering with [US President Joe] Biden at which he convinced him that Turkey could play a much bigger role in Afghanistan,” said Emre Caliskan, research fellow at the London-based policy Centre.
Erdogan first suggested Turkey’s role to safeguard Kabul airport to Biden at a NATO summit in June.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, added that Erdogan would use “Afghanistan as a showcase, that really Turkey and therefore the US share interests on variety of issues, which the US also benefits from cooperation with Turkey.
“Ankara sees this as a subject that proves that the West still needs Turkey, or the West still benefits from cooperation with Turkey.”
While Erdogan’s trip to ny is principally to attend the overall Assembly, a gathering with Biden would be a chance for the newest reset in US-Turkey ties.
After Biden came to office in January, he waited three months before chatting with Erdogan because the new White House displayed its ire at Turkey’s purchase o
The fallout centres on Washington’s insistence that the Russian system is incompatible with NATO’s defences and specifically that it could gather secrets about the F-35, a next-generation fighter jet that Turkey had been a part of developing.
The acquisition of S-400s saw Turkey began the fighter programme in 2019 and US sanctions were later imposed on senior Turkish defence officials.
The row adds to other disputes between the 2 states.
Turkey is unhappy with US support for Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria it says are tied to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which has waged a 37-year battle for Kurdish rights against Turkey that has killed tens of thousands.
It also demands the extradition of Fethullah Gulen, accused by Ankara of masterminding a 2016 coup attempt, who has lived within the US for quite 20 years. Gulen denies the accusations against him.
Washington, meanwhile, has been critical of Turkey’s human rights record, although there are few signs of Biden completing his promise to place this issue at the centre of his policy .
More important for the US is Turkey’s prolonged flirtation with Russia, most clearly encapsulated within the S-400 issue.
Last month, a Russian arms export official said Turkey was on the brink of committing to receive a second batch of S-400s, something that might likely provoke further US sanctions against Ankara.
An olive branch?
Selim Sazak, an Ankara-based analyst, suggested Turkey would seek to a minimum of delay any longer Russian defence deals during a bid to patch up US relations.
One possible peace offering the US could offer over the S-400s would be to comply with Ankara’s suggestion of a joint committee to manage the dispute, something the Americans have thus far flatly refused.
“Even if they know they won’t make much progress, if they establish a committee, it’ll be an achievement for Erdogan for his domestic audience,” Caliskan said.
Turkey’s offer to assist run Kabul airport to make sure diplomats and aid workers can travel safely seems to be Erdogan’s best chance of enticing concessions from Biden.
Turkey ran the military a part of the airport for 6 years before the town fell to the Taliban and NATO troops left. It currently has technicians performing at the location alongside a Qatari team and hopes to increase its influence through its ties with Qatar and Pakistan – the 2 nations closest to Afghanistan’s new rulers.
‘A common agenda’
Caliskan said running the airport allowed Turkey to open channels with the US, which is that the “main issue” for Turkish policymakers.
“The problem with Turkey-US relations was they couldn’t find a standard agenda to beat their differences,” he added. “It seems they found a standard agenda now and that they have established a working relationship.”
Unluhisarcikli predicted the general Turkey-US relationship would be up for discussion as “an extension of the Afghanistan issue”.
Despite Turkey cosying up to Russia, it remains wary of its traditional rival. The countries remain on opposing sides in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno Karabakh within the Caucasus.
Likewise, Washington is keen to limit Russian influence where possible, Unluhisarcikli said.
As with many overseas appearances, much of what Erdogan does are going to be aimed toward voters back home.
Elections are thanks to be held in 2023 but could come earlier. The president has been struggling over the economy, the coronavirus pandemic, and therefore the threat of further migration from Afghanistan, which might increase some four million refugees currently in Turkey.
Erdogan also wants to re-establish his image as a world leader for his domestic audience, which any concessions from Biden would bolster.
He plans to market his recently published book, A Fairer World is feasible , which expands on previous involves the reform of UN decision-making, and can open the Turkish House, a prestigious multi-purpose skyscraper which will be home to Turkey’s UN delegation.
Using these twice , he wants to urge back within the picture of worldwide leaders,” said Unluhisarcikli.
An improvement in ties with the US would also make Turkey seem a more appealing prospect for foreign investors offering much-needed capital for the Turkish economy.
On the broader front, Erdogan is probably going to press other leaders for a few commitment over the way to affect an increase in Afghan migration. Turkey has stressed it cannot accept any longer refugees and can search for an idea that keeps fleeing Afghans faraway from its borders.
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With the status of Kabul airport still undecided – the Taliban have refused to permit foreign forces to protect the airport and there’s little international confidence in their ability to perform the task – there are few concrete measures Erdogan can promise, consistent with Sazak.
“There’s little or no Erdogan has got to offer apart from goodwill, which he knows is already heavily overdrawn,” he said. “There’s little or no the US could ask of Erdogan that he could deliver without very significant political cost.”
Sazak added: “Overall, it’s getting to be much ado about nothing. The permutation for Erdogan to realize anything goes to be very difficult.”Even with the Taliban’s agreement, further Turkish involvement in Afghanistan poses significant risks.
“If things in Afghanistan fail , that’s a price Erdogan can’t pay in Turkey,” Caliskan said. “If Turkey sees the bodies of dead Turkish soldiers, it’ll be a difficult situation for Erdogan.”